Old 01-01-2020 | 10:10 AM
  #23  
m3113n1a1
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Not happening anytime soon (in the US).

But I fully expect that we'll get to 67-68 in the US within ten years or so. I think it will be much harder to go beyond that for 121.

The rationale for age 65 doesn't change too much at age 67, and there will likely be a big political push, especially if airlines struggle to meet demand because of retirements.

Keep in mind that retirement-induced pilot shortages at the big boys probably has more to do with simulator/training capacity than age 65 itself. Creating a new source of ab initio pilots for example may not solve the problem...

If you retire a (typically very senior) guy at age 65 at a multi-fleet airline and replace him with a new guy you generate a LOT of training events across multiple fleets. In addition to sim capacity issues, you just took a bunch of pilots off line for several months. Even with a suitable noob waiting in the wings, you've still probably lost an effective man-year of pilot availability. Keeping the old guy dilutes that problem or at least kicks the can.

The industry will kick the can if they haven't come up with a better solution, and their political cronies will back them up unless there's some good high-profile reason not to.
I think you're right. But if airlines were smart, they'd negotiate a more favorable pilot contract to mitigate their training constraints by throwing money at the problem. Things such as seniority based pay, or more training bypasses, longer seat locks etc.