Originally Posted by
TransWorld
As I see it, most of the military pilots that want to fly civilian as a career are already headed on that path. (How many do you know that just cannot get hired at the majors or regionals, or are just not trying? Not many, I would guess.)
Hard for me to see a big increase in military being hired; all the majors are increasing their hiring this year. Majors will all be competing for the same fixed pool of military pilots.
Likewise, if flow numbers stay the same, AA will not be getting increased numbers through the flows.
That leaves hiring more civilian from these WO and/or others.
Remember this is not a one shot deal. We are looking at the large hiring numbers, year after year, for the next decade.
Yes, the pool of "surplus" military is largely tapped out now (guys who took non-airline or non-flying jobs, rotor, etc). From here on out the only folks available to the airlines is really going to be the steady-state output at the usual gates (10, 20, 24, 30 years). They might be able to entice a few more at the 20-year gate.
Pretty much all FW UPT-grad mil pilots leaving AD with normal flight times (for their community) are petting snapped up immediately by one of the big six right now. No more blood in that stone.
And the mil CAN do STOPLESS if it gets bad enough, so even the steady state is not a guarantee.