The Navy rather dramatically underfunded their fixed wing flying slots from 2005 to 2012. They are still 1200 plus below their requirements. There flight training slots were fully funded in 2019 for the first time in over a decade. They hope to be caught up with requirements by 2023 but they are still losing pilots at historically high rates from those smaller classes as their active duty service commitments expire. Over the last decade they averaged a loss of 465 pilots a year peaking in 2018 (the last year for which figures were available) at 611 pilots.


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/...llenge-begins/

The U.S.A.F. is similarly short on pilots for many of the same reasons. It is 2000 pilots short of its requirements and under totally optimum conditions can produce approximately 1400 pilots per year, something it has managed only once since 2007. The rest of the years have ranged between 1350 and 1100. They ASPIRE to produce 1480 pilots annually and are planning on cutting UPT by five weeks to do it. That may or may not work. Sometimes the shoe clerk’s bright ideas turn out to be pretty stupid (See Carter-era “dynamic duo” Air Training Command program).


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-p...ilot-shortage/

The point is, if both the USN and the USAF both solve their funding and instructor programs they will STILL only be producing about 2000 fixed wing pilots a year. Except for the Reservist pilots, all of those will have a ten year active duty service commitment, meaning for the next decade all you can draw from are the already fairly depleted and under strength year groups. Of that number, some will hang in there until retirement at 20 years before starting their post retirement second career, some will go on longer to become Captains/Admirals/Colonels/Generals delaying and shortening their potential post-retirement civilian Careers, some will become medically disqualified or due along the way.

But the absolute MAXIMUM you are going to see going to the airlines is only going to be ~1900 a year and the average will be even less because that’s all the people still left in those year groups. Realistically, 1600 is probably about right - maybe even less since the USAF is contracting out their adversary air business.

But assuming these are divided up equally among the ‘big six,” that’s only about 300 military flyers per year per airline.

American Airlines alone is going to retire 900 pilots a year for the next six years, Delta another 800 a year, United 500... That doesn’t count expansion, the ULCCs, UPS or FEDEX, SWA...

The numbers of active duty military trained Pilots simply aren’t there, guys, it’s as simple as that. Nobody is going to be able to avoid civilian OTS hiring, especially since flow is designed to keep the regionals staffed, not to staff the major.