Originally Posted by
PotatoChip
I think you guys were missing my point. I wrote "legacy" pilot for a reason. That's what most new, aspiring aviators think of when picturing themselves jet setting around in their mind's eye. I don't think many set out to become an Allegiant captain, and by no means is that an offense to Allegiant.
Second-tier is the consolation prize but it's a very nice consolation... more time off and money than any of your white-collar buddies except for most docs and a few lawyers, who will have more money and less time off.
Originally Posted by
PotatoChip
Second, of course the chance is high IF you have a clean record, and IF this or that. That's my point. Most pilots will have a hiccup (or seven)...
The chances of someone starting pilot training today ending up as even a Spirit captain aren't that high. A lot of people wash out of training, or give up to begin with. More run out of money and stop altogether. Others have failures that don't look so pretty. Some get DUI's or in other infractions along the way. Some may have an egregious FAA infraction, or 11 speeding tickets. Some have a fiancee who doesn't support their dream and ends up causing all sorts of troubles... We all know these people, and they aren't becoming United captains anytime soon (or are a LOT less likely).
To anyone starting out right now, day one, I'm saying you have to be committed. In all areas of your life. 9/10 people starting out right now aren't going to become airline captains.
My 90% number was for a "stereotypical pilot". I wasn't clear but here's what I meant:
College degree, clean record, normal kind of motivated person with no flight experience: 70% to LCC CA or better (if you catch the wave).
College degree, clean record, completed IOE at a regional: 90% to LCC CA or better. The fallouts will be DUI, medical, multiple training failures down the road, etc.
This assumes that YOU put in the max effort until off probation at the major.. If you don't do that, al bets are off.
I know there are qualified guys at the regionals who can't get a call but I'm pretty sure they will ALL have the opportunity over the next few years (but you HAVE to put in the effort, I know many who don't and they're all enjoying that special experience of seeing their FO's off to the majors).
BTW, the military is tapped out... they simply CANNOT increase training bandwidth without an act of congress and long-term funding for new bases, planes, and IP's. Next step for them will be increased initial obligations and/or STOPLOSS. The military pipeline is actually likely to dwindle down at some point over the next five years.