I think AA will be hiring a lot more regional captains to fill those entry level slots than they will be poaching 4th year ULCC Captains. They’d have to then upgrade at AA before they Even STARTED to offset the pay they were giving up to make the switch and they would never recover the lost seniority. And while the money would even out - by year 12 or so - and then be a net gain for the switch, you’d still spend a lot of those first years as furlough bait and quite possibly commuting to reserve someplace you don’t want to be before - finally - getting a line.

you’ll get a few, but for most, it just won’t be worth it.