C2078

Excellent post by Sluggo 👍.

While not a Fedex guy (UPS guy), and hired within the last 3 years, here is my 2 cents.

First of all, Fedex is most definitely NOT a sinking ship. However, I would not take in consideration how bad the airlines where doing during the Great Recession vs how Fedex/UPS where expanding and being shielded from economic uncertainty. This is a VERY different time, the pax airlines finally, after decades of operation, understand that yield management/profitability is much more important than market share. They will dump a market or reduce frequency in a heart beat if loosing money, redeploy assets to another profitable route. The mindset and structural nature of the business has fundamentally changed. The big 4 have two powerful tools available to them in case capacity starts to surpass demand: park older planes and stop hiring and let attrition widdle down the surplus of pilots. IMO, unless there is some sort of depression, you won’t see a furlough for years, if at all.

The cargo world is much more in flux today than the pax airlines. Not that it’s going anywhere, but both Fedex and UPS are facing headwinds and a changing landscape. E-Commerce and international trade come to mind. One thing is for certain, Amazon has changed the competitive landscape, hate them or love them. One positive byproduct is people want their purchases NOW, creating higher demand for faster shipping services. And brick and mortar continues it’s precipitous decline.

I have just under 500 folks below me at UPS (out of 2,950 or so) and while not considering jumping ship (that sailed for me when I turned down Purple and United, regret somewhat not taking the ladder), it makes me a tad uncomfortable. And with less than a year in at Fedex, I would be very uncomfortable, not panicking but uncomfortable.

Fedex is a great company, tremendous schedule flexibility, but with few coming in below you in the near future, your QOL may not improve as rapidly as previous new hires. The question becomes, and it only matters what YOU think, is this temporary or is it more long term? If you ask me, again IMO, while absolutely still a great job, those hired at Fedex recently and going forward have missed the expansion wave, the days of rapid QOL improvement. That was one part of my decision to say no thank you to Fedex. Fedex had been hiring 500+ a year for multiple years, since 2014 something like half or more of the seniority list has been hired. And the potential for flying expansion, after having already received a large chunk of the new planes, net growth of the seniority list was simply going to slow down, with upward movement coming mostly in the form of retirements (something like 42 76 and 15 77 remaining to be delivered, of which most will be replacements).

I hear quite a bit of rumblings regarding schedule quality deterioration from the 4-5 former colleagues that are at Fedex. Probably one of the best aspects of the job. Something worth looking further into.

Age is another huge factor. If you are 45+ I would not even consider Delta or Southwest due to demographics. United is probably best right now, AA with the MASSIVE retirements will provide very rapid movement but you are rolling the dice with such a dysfunctional family.

Fedex (and UPS for that matter) is facing several headwinds, and the industry landscape is changing just as the pax carriers underwent fundamental structural changes in the 2000’s. Tough to predict what the future holds. Acquisition by a major retailer? Chinese remove the boot from the neck? Amazon continues to grow to the point of offering third party shipping services at a low cost to offset their own shipping?

A lot of uncertainties right now, we all wish we had a crystal ball. While not doing night hub turns anymore, and my QOL is pretty good, I do regret somewhat not going to United. My bed is made, your window, depending on your age, is still open. My number one suggestion as a relatively new guy, DO NOT make haste decisions and do not make decisions on short term economic events. Analyze what you are considering leaving behind vs what you may or may not gain. I can’t emphasize enough, THE GRASS IS NOT ALWAYS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE. Analyze every aspect of the job, schedules, health care, retirement, upward mobility, commuting (or not), Union/company relationship, etc. Don’t focus on just one thing. Fedex seems to take pride that they have never furloughed (unlike Brown who did not need to furlough and did it anyways 🤦‍♂️), something to consider.

Look at the grand picture, it is most definitely not a black or white decision. Good luck to you!!