Originally Posted by
WaterRooster
The Legacy airlines, my personal opinion, will overreach in these new contracts. That leads to unsustainable pay and benefits should (when) the next economic downturn comes. So while yes I want to see huge gains for all of us as pilots, who gets hurt in a down turn? We do. We get furloughed and our contracts cut. The CEOs and others on the top get to keep what they have. I guess long story short, the ULCCs might not be in a bad place should the economy go into a recession over the next few years.
It's not over-reach because it IS sustainable in the current environment.
The trick for the unions is to find just the right balance for givebacks when the time comes.
Furloughs are gonna happen, it's hopeless to try to prevent that, and counter-productive.
What the unions need to avoid is BK filings this time around... if you give some *temporary* voluntary concessions with automatic snapback dates (snapback can be voluntarily extended if needed down the road) then you can avoid a BK which would gut your hard-earned contract (which as we know is a deep hole that takes a long time to climb out of).
By doing it in a voluntary manner you stay in the driver's seat for how much, how long, and whether to extend it.
Also worth noting that BK laws have changed since the last round... it's MUCH harder to do a "bankruptcy of convenience" today. Any management team that files will be in serious risk of losing their jobs and their company to the whims of the creditors so management is more likely to try to work a deal with labor to avoid BK. But pilot groups also need to work to avoid BK, because THEIR jobs and careers would be in the same jeopardy. Liquidation is far more likely today than in 2007.
Bottom line... no need to work for ULCC cut-rates today on the premise that legacy rates *might* not be sustainable in some future economy. But be prepared to work with management on TEMPORARY concessions if the day comes when BK is a real threat.