There are things in the ULCC contracts, that AA doesn't have, that are very enticing. Spirit has that minimum 4 days off between sequences, or something like that. Frontier pays 125% on any credit over 82 hours. The schedule flexibility is unmatched at F9. Add/Swap/Drop at F9 is extremely powerful. Premium flying at 150%. At AA, what you get is basically what you fly (so I've been told). F9 has 150% deadhead middle seat pay.

Comparing W2s AA vs. F9, you'd be very surprised. It works for some people, it doesn't for others. It's important for each person to analyze their priorities and decide from that.

Doing the math, over the course of my career, I would make more money at F9 vs. waiting for the flow to AA. More money, sooner, and quicker upgrade. And that doesn't take into account any of the premium incentives at F9.

The bean counters at F9 and NK feel extremely confident and are working to prepare every day for the next recession, and whole heartedly believe their system will be profitable. Time will tell.