There-ish . Based on a *straight* calculation of retirements from those not flowing, meaning it excludes the exceptions others are pointing out.

This is for a newer hire, so people who are higher up will have a higher number closer to 200. Newer pilots will have a lower number as that group ages out.

In order to keep the number at 200ish, a back of the scratch paper doodle says 4-6%ish or so would have to decline to flow, but I haven’t had coffee yet and I don’t have my laptop so I’m going off of memory.

If someone wants to help get me better data (it can be historical) I can make better models.