Originally Posted by
skyemiles2
There-ish . Based on a *straight* calculation of retirements from those not flowing, meaning it excludes the exceptions others are pointing out.
This is for a newer hire, so people who are higher up will have a higher number closer to 200. Newer pilots will have a lower number as that group ages out.
In order to keep the number at 200ish, a back of the scratch paper doodle says 4-6%ish or so would have to decline to flow, but I haven’t had coffee yet and I don’t have my laptop so I’m going off of memory.
If someone wants to help get me better data (it can be historical) I can make better models.
So, lets say you are correct and it stays at 100. That would mean someone coming in today with would be looking at about 2300 people to go before they flow. If we average it out to 20 a month that is a 9.5 year flow, assuming averages and my morning math is correct. I also understand this doesn't account for attrition. Matches pretty close to the union flow plan to be honest.