Originally Posted by
Cyio
So, lets say you are correct and it stays at 100. That would mean someone coming in today with would be looking at about 2300 people to go before they flow. If we average it out to 20 a month that is a 9.5 year flow, assuming averages and my morning math is correct. I also understand this doesn't account for attrition. Matches pretty close to the union flow plan to be honest.
That’s the straight math that the union uses, correct, which is basically worst case scenario assuming AA is hiring. (So not actually worst case scenario as some here know all too well.)
In the current environment, attrition is really the only significant factor here. My hunch is that the others kind of wash out into error, but I haven’t really studied that closely.
As you move closer (3 years and below) the attrition ahead of you decreases significantly. That’s what I’ve been tinkering with to get closer to actual projections based on tenure instead of the company’s optimism and the union’s. It’s not ready for prime time yet though since I need to figure out some way to make it sustainable.
I’m relying on the union email as well as seniority lists to tell me attrition, so actual data is spotty at best.
I think 2020 will be a telling year.