From another post AA is the one who calculates the estimated flows. It is based on projected attrition both with and outside of the flow. It takes hiring of all major airlines into account, with normal retirements, and estimated number of employees that will leave to go elsewhere.
The flaw in these flow calculations is that they underpredicted the number of pilots who would be too lazy to apply outside of the flow and to work hard to try to get hired somewhere else. At last check, less than 18% of the AA WO pilots even have an updated application in with any major airline. This is insane.
So, the flow will likely be 6 years or less, that is true. The only thing that will make it more is pilots not trying to get hired before.
DoNoHarm is correct. AA calculates flow almost down to the person with projected dates for low, medium and high attrition. The latest numbers (yesterday) show a pilot hired in January/February 2020 will flow to AA between 4 years and 7 months (high attrition) and 5 years and 8 months (low attrition).That being said, AA hired three Piedmont pilots outside of the flow in January so far, which means attrition is already going to lean toward the high side this month.