Originally Posted by mikea72580

In a few years time, the Contract 2019 attempt to procure Minimum Balances through Section 6 negotiations will be looked upon as a unique negotiating folly. At the present time, most pilots believe it is a throwaway item designed to "tip the cap" to near retirement age pilots who were employed by Delta Air Lines during a decade of financial turmoil. Without question, the generation with the most demonstrated need for Minimum Balances have already retired, and the financial case for Minimum Balances is disintegrating by the day as 65 pilots/month are reaching mandatory retirement and will not be eligible to receive such benefits.

There are a few realities that clearly point to the impending doom of this negotiation item, and the only question at this point is how much damage and delay will this item cost the pilot group at large over the next 2-3 years. Simply put, the quicker we abandon this item, the sooner we will realize a contract for all Delta pilots.

1) Do we have the votes and/or the collective will to stand behind Minimum Balances? The obvious answer is NO. Despite what appears to be a "doubling down" by the MEC and Negotiating Committee on this item, it's uncertain how much of their stance is just negotiating posture/leverage and/or how much they genuinely believe they have the mandate to pursue Minimum Balances.

What do we know about the viability of MB?
-Every month, we lose 65 votes FOR MB(Retirements), and we gain 65 votes AGAINST MB(New Hires).
-MB in its current form would be among the highest price items or THE highest priced item in our current Section 6 negotiations
-Based on pilot group demographics, we can assume that 50% or less of the pilot group is FOR MB
-The company's position will be strongly AGAINST MB and the cost associated with it.

Ask yourself this, which item in SECTION 6 history at ANY airline was ever agreed to, that had less than 50% pilot support and was one of the HIGHEST line item costs to the company.
Answer: NONE

Another question: Is this item likely to gain support or lose support throughout the course of negotiations? AKA, is the will of Delta pilots getting stronger or weaker over time?
Answer: As discussed above, the demographic shift indicates a falling level of support.

2) Minimum Balances are introducing a new concept in Section 6 negotiating. This is the first time in airline history that Section 6 "gains" are attempting to benefit each pilot equally on the ACTUAL DAY of ratification. Every contract to date, has been a forward looking package of graduated benefits which has made NO attempt to factor in a pilots retirement date when calculating overall "gain". This concept proposes to accelerate an individual's benefit so that each pilot receives the same overall calculated numerical benefit on the ACTUAL DATE of contract ratification. This has NEVER been done before in airline history.
If this new concept is approved, it would initiate a new standard requiring the contractual gains of each 3-5 year agreement to be realized by all pilots on the ACTUAL DATE of ratification rather than received throughout the duration of the agreement. This concept would have to be implemented across all benefit groups, including compensation. For example, if a new contract is signed with 4% annual raises over a 5 year period, pilots who reach retirement age 1 year into the agreement would need to receive accelerated pay rate benefits, ie 20% in the first year. Like the concept of Minimum Balances, this would be required for each pilot to benefit equally as a result of contract ratification. The type of stated EQUALITY goal promoted by the current MEC.

Does this pilot group have the desire and the resolve to change the way benefits are distributed for each Section 6 agreement from today on into the future? Are our pilots willing to fight for this over the next few years? Should all new contracts capture and secure the FULL lifelong benefit for each pilot on the DATE OF RATIFICATION vs the historical model of receiving those benefits over time, if eligible, as a result of maintaining employment with Delta Air Lines?

So, putting aside your own personal preferences, what is the most likely course of events in the future were this MEC and Negotiating Committee to hold Minimum Balances as a non-starter?

In my personal 30,000 ft view, I think the most likely outcome initially is an indefinite delay in reaching an agreement. Followed by the continuation of the erosion of trust and unity by the pilot group for this MEC and Negotiating Committee, which began in December 2019 with the unveiling of our opening position with regard to Retirement and Benefits. Ultimately, if Minimum Balances are not publicly abandoned, we will go through a near re-run of post TA1 whereby the MEC Chairman will be replaced by LEC Reps who are scrambling to placate their constituents. Ultimately, their attempt to salvage their positions will fail and new LEC reps will take their place resulting in the replacement of the Negotiation Committee. The only question yet to be answered is, how much will the pursuit of Minimum Balances cost Delta pilots?