Originally Posted by
Andy
Excellent post.
ULCCs work for some, not for others.
A big reason why I like the big 3 is getting to fly different aircraft to different destinations. I've flown the 727,737, 757,767,777, 787 and am currently flying the A319/320. I couldn't do that at LUV, JBLU, or an ULCC.
I commute to work, but spend less time getting to/from work than most cube workers in large cities so commuting doesn't bother me. YMMV. (Sure, I'd prefer to live in domicile but wifey doesn't want to move and the cost of living is much lower where we live).
Everyone I've flown with who previously flew for an ULCC is impressed with the support given to crews by United. Is it quantifiable? Not really, just like the tradeoffs of commuting.
Salary/benefits are better and will likely stay better at the big 3 but the gap has definitely narrowed on wages.
One thing about ULCCs is that the top of the seniority lists are fairly young so there won't be much upward movement from retirements; almost all growth will have to come from expansion. The big 3 have a ton of retirements but grow at a slower rate than ULCCs. And if one wants to just fly the bus/guppy at the big 3, they'll be able to reach the top 25% of the list relatively quickly.
What happens in the next downturn? No one knows, but I don't expect the same response (giving up market share) by the legacies as in past because balance sheets are in better shape at the big 3, including AA. And debt is CHEAP right now, as anyone who ever had a 10%+ mortgage in years past will tell you.
You don’t seem to understand the growth going on at ULCC’s. I’ll be in the top 30% of the company at the end of our next aircraft order. Well under a decade into employment here.
I think the legacies will generally offer more money and better opportunities for varied flying. But the worm keeps turning. Today’s AA may be tomorrow’s Pan Am, and today’s ULCC may be tomorrow’s SWA. Or completely opposite of that.
Spirit actually made money in the last downturn. Spending pressures hit everyone during economic lows and plenty of people will look for bottom dollar travel who once splurged on business class travel. The ULCC model is actually a bit weather resistant with regard to a recession. Obviously none are weather proof, but the model is predicated on oil being considerably more expensive than it is now.
No no one will know how it all shakes out until we’re all polishing recliners in our jumpsuits while perusing QVC.