Originally Posted by
Excargodog
just remember, past is generally prologue, and the history of the aviation industry is littered with the wreckage of airlines like PanAm, TWA, and others that would have seemed too big to fail and the safe bet at the time.
Different era. Pan Am and Eastern (the two big failures) had been struggling for a long time, and de-regulation was the final nail.
The current top four (maybe top six?) probably are too big to fail absent a true economic catastrophe. They are also all structurally in good shape (several are in great shape), and a currently well aligned with the business reality they operate in. For example they can compete with ULCC to a significant degree with ultra-discount fares... and they can sell as few or many of those as demand dictates (they don't have the competitive advantage of Discount Airline Pilot wages, but market forces are addressing that to a degree).