Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Different era. Pan Am and Eastern (the two big failures) had been struggling for a long time, and de-regulation was the final nail.
The current top four (maybe top six?) probably are too big to fail absent a true economic catastrophe. They are also all structurally in good shape (several are in great shape), and a currently well aligned with the business reality they operate in. For example they can compete with ULCC to a significant degree with ultra-discount fares... and they can sell as few or many of those as demand dictates (they don't have the competitive advantage of Discount Airline Pilot wages, but market forces are addressing that to a degree).
Not talking about failure per se. They didn’t FAIL when they went into bankruptcy, just used the threat of failure to void contracts, cease paying into pension funds, and enable furloughs. Just like Alaska had their pay cut 26% at the whim of a mediator when management convinced him they needed it to stay competitive.
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...rlines-pilots/
Assuming the Big Three or Big Six will never have their own ‘Kasher moment’ in the event of a significant downturn is - I believe - unwise.
The history of airline pay has been a volatile one. Those assuming it can only go up do so at their own risk. Yes, I believe over the long haul with prudent money management you will very likely do better at a legacy (at least one with widebodies) than at a ULCC. But that’s over the long haul and with prudent money management. I know a couple of retired Delta pilots that could tell you stories about building their retirement plans around pensions that were suddenly greatly reduced. They certainly aren’t living in cardboard shacks under the freeway even now, but their retirements certainly were a severe cutback from what they had planned on.