Originally Posted by
Sheg0theD
They have already announced a slow down in deliveries. Airbus can’t keep up. Depends who you ask, but upgrade is somewhere around the 2.5 to 3.5 mark (base dependent of course).
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This ^^^^^
We don’t know how much the production problems will affects us at this point. If they go well into 2021 like Christie said, upgrade would be at the 3.5 to 4 yr mark for someone hired today. This is just my own math. Could be way off depending on a number of factors. Latest vacancy bid bulletin went down to 28 upgrades. It might be our first indication of the adjusted growth rate for this year (or could be something else).
If you want to see the silver lining, we’ll still get those airplanes at some point, and either the company will accept the slower growth rate, or try to catch up whenever Airbus can increase deliveries. If it’s the later, then upgrade time will come back down to under 3 years.