Originally Posted by
profit
Yes, 20x. The current year flu is around 0.1%. The current COVID-19 rate is estimated 2.3%. The 1918 Spanish Flu was around 2%. The
first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, was just 0.02 percent.
(this from the H5N1 page)
The case-fatality rate is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2-3% (1918 pandemic).
SARS and MERS were more deadly, but far less transmissible.
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP
I didn't say a thing about supply chain disruptions. But if you're implying that disruptions are due to "hysteria", then do a calculation of what 2% of 7 Billion people is.
The fatality rate is not all that's important, it's the rate of hospitalization as well. The government/healthcare system can't handle hundreds of thousands to millions of new cases showing up at the hospital all at once.
I expect travel to be reduced/restricted to the cities most vulnerable, e.g. San Fransisco, as well as most international travel.