Originally Posted by
Baradium
The current mortality rate in the US, with a small known number of patients, is 7% not .7%, this is a substantial difference. And this assumes that 100% of sick patients will recover of those currently known. Medical professionals ARE taking this very seriously and are just not talking about probable deaths. I'm involved in EMS and WE are taking it incredibly seriously.
Feel free to re-run your numbers, but pay attention to those decimal points, you should be MUCH more concerned than you are, but maybe a misplaced decimal point is why you seem to take this so lackadaisically.
If this becomes widespread we do not have the hospital beds available to provide high level treatment to the relatively large number of cases that require intensive care.
You simply cannot take a tiny sample size and scale it up to anything meaningful. By that logic, based on the sock market today, I should be able to retire by the end of the month...
The key phrase is
known. The demominator is very likely
much larger than we know, meaning the rate gets driven down. But of those cases we do know about, The WHO and CDC are citing a point seven, 0.7%, overall mortality rate outside China,
heavily skewed to the elderly. When the
CDC tells me to panic, I will. In the meantime, we should all take it seriously, wash our hands, and not panic. And definitely take what every media source says with a grain of salt. Sure, take this more seriously than we typically take the flu, which killed 100 people just today. Underlying conditions, availability of care, standard of care, supportive care available, etc is
entirely different than in China. I'm glad EMS is taking it seriously, they should prepare. However, also take a deep breath.
Originally Posted by
Mesabah
It's up to 70% transmissible-ity, which means almost all of us will get it, but most of us probably won't even know we have it. However, if you are over 70 with a heart or lung condition, the odds are it will be fatal. The virus has almost no effect on kids.
I get what you are saying, but odds are that you will survive, actually. The over 70 Mortality rate is about 8%. Over 80 is about 20%. You are right about kids and adults up to 40, which is pretty close to the regular flu at .2%.