I used to study this stuff religiously. Looking at prognostications and numbers for retirement and 401K and seniority movement. And then I realized that what every older pilot who’s seen a thing or 2 has said has been right all along...

Its all pointless. Too much changes too quickly to realistically try and predict too far in this industry. Make decisions based on what you know to be true today and what’s best for you now. Some things are predictable but overall this industry is a complete roll of the dice.