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Old 03-10-2020 | 01:36 AM
  #485  
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Originally Posted by CaptDave
7,769,814,482 people in the world
1,439,323,776 in China alone.

This means:
In China, only
80,754 people were infected.
And world wide, only 114,344 are or were infected.
the percentage of those infected are

world: 0.000015%
and
China: 0.000056%

4,025 deaths so far, which means world wide, you currently have a 0.000000518% chance of catching and dying from this.

Thats like 1 person in every 1,930,389 people that will actually perish from this virus.

I've got higher odds of getting struck by lightning or shot by a drug dealer.
This is really crunching numbers to win a point while glossing over all the other important details.

It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.

This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.

Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.

Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.

If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.

That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.

Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
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