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Old 03-10-2020 | 03:19 AM
  #486  
Al Czervik's Avatar
Al Czervik
You scratched my anchor
 
Joined: Feb 2011
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Originally Posted by Cloud5urfer
This is really crunching numbers to win a point while glossing over all the other important details.

It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.

This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.

Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.

Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.

If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.

That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.

Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
the fact you left out for death rate is cases vs tested. No one other than S Korea has had a significant number tested. The majority of those tested are VERY sick which correlates to a higher death rate. There is a good possibility many more have had this with no significant detriment.
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