Thread: JP Morgan 3/10
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Old 03-10-2020 | 12:44 PM
  #28  
Phins2right
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
After listening to DAL and then AMR. We are much better positioned and are making a larger capacity move in response to this. I think the durability thesis will finally be tested. AMR has better liquidity but their expenses are less variable because of their debt obligations. Short story is that they have to keep the highly financed fleet flying to pay for it. They also have disclosed $7.5B in liquidity so if that number shrinks at the end of the quarter, that will be a sign that their capacity and fleet plan is unsustainable in a down turn. We have a revenue premium that will hopefully hold during this and allow for better capacity disciple. This is a circular pattern that will enable reduced capacity to support prices which will in turn allow further reductions and price support.

The profit sharing expense reduction was also mentioned as a significant cost saver that benefits us. From a corporate financial health standpoint I have always supported the variable nature of this compensation and think a reduced or even no profit sharing in a single year is the wisest way to automatically share in the company's success and cyclical nature of profits. In this way we are on par with owners without the ownership risk and even in a better position as the first to be paid our percentage. Share buybacks have been suspended and that along with suspending pension payments (funding, not retiree benefits) will allow a self inflicted expense increase to subside greatly. In my opinion we are making all the right moves and are indeed the best positioned for this environment. That gives me confidence as I sit idle on reserve for awhile.
Excellent analysis. Thank you.
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