Originally Posted by
Al Czervik
the fact you left out for death rate is cases vs tested. No one other than S Korea has had a significant number tested. The majority of those tested are VERY sick which correlates to a higher death rate. There is a good possibility many more have had this with no significant detriment.
You’re right, in that we don’t have enough testing. I’ve already provided you with the current percentages based off of what we know. We’re working with an unknown. To just assume that the rate is probably lower, is extremely dangerous. Some places have had less severe cases, while others like Italy are having a much higher number of severe cases. One of the factors seen in China and why the fatality rate was higher initially, was because the healthcare system was overwhelmed. They simply couldn’t treat everyone with the quality of care needed to make this survivable in severe cases.
Originally Posted by
Andy
As a counterpoint, I argue that this has not been contained and most of us have already been exposed to coronavirus. I spent more than a week throughout Italy in mid-February. There were a ton of Asian tourists. The likelihood that I've been exposed is pretty high.
If I caught it during that time, I didn't notice.
No, we haven’t. There are definitely more cases in the US than being reported, because we don’t have the test data. That’s a huge problem here. It’s been spreading for potentially 6 weeks undetected in Washington. It wasn’t in Italy when you were there in February. Or it was just getting there. China locked down in late January, and the virus trickled out after that.
Originally Posted by
Andy
Funny you misinterpreted it that way. That's the same guy that incorrectly stated that if you're exposed to the coronavirus, you're going to get it. Total falsehood.
You’re referring to me, while I said everyone exposed gets it, I didn't convey my meaning very well. We have no vaccines or natural immunizations (due to multiple exposures over a lifetime) to this virus. That could result in higher infection rates than the flu without the measures we're seeing put into place. If someone with the flu sneezes in your face, you’ve been exposed. Or more subtly, coughs in their hand, shakes yours, and then you impulsively scratch an itch on your nose or rub your eye before washing your hands.. Are you really arguing that you wouldn’t catch a virus in that scenario?
In contrast, maybe that infected person doesn't cough into their hand before your handshake. Or you were only in relative proximity to them. In that scenario you've still been "exposed," but you're right you may not catch it. You can still expect a 14 day quarantine though. And as potential exposures climb that will continue to affect more and more people.
Originally Posted by
TimetoClimb
Bingo.
it's been the elephant in the room in the U.S. economy since the Fed started massive QE after 2008 and much of the exuberance of the last 10 years is thanks to cheap debt not fundamentals. The chickens are coming home to roost.
The oil price wars would be a boon to the airlines. Drops in oil prices are not in any way related to capacity reductions. Delta – 15%, United – 10%, American 7.5%, Jetblue – 5%. Those are all because of the sharp decrease in travel demand from this virus.
Originally Posted by
CaptDave
Appreciate the feedback. I wasn't trying to win over anything. Just putting real numbers out there. I will point out, though, that given the way the CDC and other agencies are talking about how this spreads, it seems most people that co tract the virus will spread it long before they even realize they have it. Quarantine or not, the virus was spreading before anyone even knew what hit.
The media is driving the mass hysteria and its killing our industry. Just trying to put some real numbers out there that show that this is really not nearly as bad as it is being portrayed.
The long incubation phase of this virus has been a huge challenge. You’re right, it goes undetected for weeks and then all of a sudden someone who’s been asymptomatic for 2 weeks is now spreading it unknowingly. That’s why its been hard to get it under control, especially without mass testing. I really disagree with touting this to media hype. The numbers I provided are what happens if we did nothing with this virus. That’s a very bad outcome, and it’s potentially optimistic.
What we’re seeing are the attempts to not let this virus get to those proportions. To do so, the economy is taking a hit or about to. Even one person who contracts the virus, and exposes an office, now puts that entire office in quarantine for 14 days. As the virus spreads and more people have to self-quarantine, they can’t go to work. They can’t generate income. For us, we can’t fly an airplane. All of those factors combine together. It’s not just about the people who get sick and die.
Originally Posted by
MEMpilot
Good data and well-informed response.
The troubling thing for me is that we’ve only tested 5,000 people thus far in a country of 327 million. South Korea alone tested 66,650 people in one week.
I agree, those below age 50 are at low-risk and in general shouldn’t be too worried about their livelihood. However, economic contagion at this point is very real as we will see the effects of it coming in the next few months.
Thank you. The low testing rate currently is an absolute problem and the CDC needs to get it up to speed as soon as possible. Testing large portions of the population seem like the only way to get a handle on this without mass quarantines, and the South Koreans have done a fantastic job of doing so. Other countries are not, or failing to get their testing protocols in place (like the United States). As this continues to spread, we could start seeing the healthcare system overwhelmed like they have in Italy.
Originally Posted by
305808
US and Italy are in the vertical right now but once the curves flatten as dramatic as these, I suspect you will see panic die down. Took a month or so but it will happen before the end of April. Summer will be old news. Even sensationalized news will burn out.
China and South Korea have made huge progress with stemming this virus, but you have to consider what they’ve done to do that. China put half the country into lockdown. If you can imagine that being done here in the United States, then you can see what we’re up against. It’s not going to just fix itself without some potentially drastic measures.
Originally Posted by
deltabound
Exactly.
Logarithmic. Not exponential. (math is hard)
It’s exponential if quarantines aren’t put in place. Quarantines affect many people, including those not infected because their infection status is unknown.