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Old 03-12-2020, 07:57 AM
  #562  
rickair7777
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
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On the positive side...

1. We've been down this road before and it did not result in a zombie apocalypse. I think most people will take a more realistic approach this time.
2. The market was pretty warm anyway, some part of the loss was likely an invertible correction just waiting for a precipitating event. Personally I was mentally discounting the value of my portfolio by about 15% for that reason... fortunately I had sold my wife on that outlook a few months ago.
3. US airlines (most of them) are fundamentally healthy and well-structured.
4. Many US airlines are now too big to fail, federal help will be forthcoming.
5. There are no fundamental structural weaknesses in the economy (that we know about yet anyway). Case in point China is now trending in the right direction.
6. The cause of all this appears to have a finite timeline, with a little luck things will quickly recover on their own once the virus subsides.

These are reasons I'm not as worried about this as I was in 2008... I was worried then, enough to double-down on my military career at the expense of airlines. Time will tell.
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