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Old 03-13-2020 | 04:26 PM
  #20  
2GoodEngines
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Just looked up a couple of numbers. After 9/11 it took just under three years for the number of airline passengers to reach the levels they were at right before 9/11. Certainly the airlines are in a MUCH better position now than they were when 9/11 occurred. They have (it seems) several mitigation strategies available to them now that may not have been available then, we’re just entering the massive retirement boom at the legacies and others, and arguably there was some pent up demand for the Max’s for which now the pressure is relieved for a while. However, someone put it very well recently (speaking about the economy), saying that “this is like a very healthy person having a heart attack. Heart attack victims don’t just hop up off of the gurney, no matter how healthy they were right before”. The economy by most measures was VERY healthy right before this “heart attack”’, and that should help it recover much more quickly than a sick economy, but the fact remains that we’re gonna be in the hospital for a while, even if the actual virus danger passes quickly. I, just as much as everyone else, want to believe that this will be over soon and that the economy, especially the airlines, make a miraculously quick recovery. I suspect (guessing out of my a$$ of course) that the recovery will probably be somewhere in the middle. If seats get back to pre-corona levels in, say, half the time it took after 9/11, with all of the aforementioned advantages that we had going in to this, maybe airlines pick up hiring again by the end of the year, and if not, almost certainly sometime in 2021. But, my gut tells me it’s gonna take a good bit longer than that before we’re back in the position we were a month ago where it was a hard core pilot’s market. I REALLY hope I’m wrong about that, but at the very least this has taken a year or more of robust balls to the wall hiring out of the equation that we likely won’t ever get back. In technical terms, this sucks. BUT, I do appreciate the intention of this thread. Talking about how good it might be later vs. how awful it is now is a nice diversion from the gnashing of teeth going on everywhere else. This will pass, it’s just gonna hurt for a while.
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