If it bleeds it leads.

I agree that most rational analysis will show that the death rate is almost certainly likely to be significantly lower than any current divisional formula claims to show, precicely because the "numerator" is likely much, much higher than currently reported. Simply because most cases seem to range anywhere from regular cold/flu to "didn't even know they had it". So clearly not only some cases, but a large majority of cases, aren't being reported worldwide. Unless someone wants to claim that every cold/flu symptom in a place where numbers are coming from is being reported and logged (lol please) then the top number is not only higher but likely radically higher. Likewise, the denominator is most likely to be highly accurate, as in close to 100%. If you die from it, that's orders of magnitude harder to hide or ignore compared to just not reporting mild symptoms which are mostly something else anyway.

The real concern though isn't the top or bottom number nearly as much as it is the number (both percent as well as total on a rolling basis) who will need to be hospitalized, how long they'll need it and how intensive the care will need to be. That's where all the "flattening the curve" urgency really comes from. Regardless of how many people get it or what number die from it, if we don't flatten the curve it could lead to some horrific battlefield triage tactics that we're not socially prepared for.



I read we have a max of 160K ventilators nation wide, and obvioulsy at any given time many are in use anyway. A Spanish Flu contageon model (yes that's but one presumptive calculation and may or may not happen, or it could be worse) would require 750K ventillators. Hence we see what's going on in Italy with supposedly top doctors calling for brutal age related triage.

This is a big deal and needs to be handled. The good news seems to be that significant steps towards that end have been and are being taken. Regardless of political affiliation, there should be a zero tolerance policy right now towards any attempt to sneak in pet project funding for anything not directly related to this in any proposal to address this.