Leaning towards it will be very good again, it’s all cyclic in this career field. UPS and Downs, but down for how long and how bad remains to be seen. Recovery will be slow and here lies the problem perhaps:

Not likely to come “roaring back” when you consider what the impacts are vs 9/11 let’s say. You could implement security measures immediately and slowly prove to the public it’s much safer to fly with visible reassurances.

Virus: This is an unseen enemy that lies in wait and has leeched itself to affecting your everyday life outside an airport based upon super hype. Whether credible super hype or not, it doesn’t matter as it’s happened. Sporting Events, Entertainment Venues, Theaters, Restaurants, Conventions, ALL Institutions of Learning, Religion, Medical Facilities, Tourism on an immense scale, Grocery Stores and the list goes on and on. Many everyday activities have shutdown or have crowd restrictions.

- Initially schools will come back in play. (Baby Sitters cost $) 2 household incomes and this virus avoids youth it seems thankfully.
- Restaurants, entertainment venues, concerts, sporting events are the escapism of our society and will rise again if some of them haven’t gone out of business... but business replaces business which takes time.
- People who come back fast to fly are those visiting families who have been separated, etc., AND businesses who really require the human interaction to connect their services, etc.
- Tourists will jump on the initial cheap tickets when they personally feel this pandemic has reached its course, etc. Otherwise it’s “we’ll think about it next year” for most.
- The slowest to return to the passenger arena will be those small or LARGE businesses that realize they spend waaaay too much $$$ on their folks traveling/hotels/per diem when they now have proven (yet again for some places) Video Telephone Conferencing (VTC) will do the job without a handshake. Bean counter engagement.

Government/Military agencies go thru this once in awhile during years with significant budget issues. The quarterly budgets get cut, travel gets cut significantly and the VTC rooms are booked all day long. Bean counters get ahold of the cost savings and Bam, you’re lucky to get half the budget next year.

Super Conventions (10-30K or even more) will come back on line eventually, but not until next year as they are planned well ahead of time to meet logistical requirements. The gap missed this year is huge, maybe the Fall schedules can remain intact.

9/11 fear of flying was different. It’s not just Flight deck doors, TSA and Federal Air Marshals, etc.
9/11 doesn’t compare as a whole when considering the economic structure of our nation and the movement of this virus terrorist. As well as our media movement about it.

Just my thoughts to unfortunately support the notion that most things will not come “roaring back.” I hope I am totally wrong!
We’re not all going to die, this wasn’t the first and won’t be the last hiccup or national crisis. Life will go on and you can find something to be happy about. You can spend time with your family, have smaller get togethers, enjoy your Big Screen Entertainment, surf the net, stare at your phones, shoot your guns, drink your coffee and Beer is still available right now.