Originally Posted by
Captain Jack
3. In conjunction with my last question, my third and final question is one that possibly concerns me the most, is there still a pilot shortage? One of the reasons I became a pilot and spent all this time and money is because of the promise of becoming an airline pilot, and relatively quickly at that. Of course, I love flying for flying, but my dream was to become an airline pilot. If there is no hiring of any kind in the near future, where does that leave me? I don't want to come off as I don't care about everyone else careers and I only am looking out for myself because I do care very much about how this is effecting everyone in our community. But with that said, I am very concerned for my own future in this industry.
#1 and #2 have been answered.
I'll elaborate on #3, yes there is still most likely a long-term pilot shortage and long-term opportunity.
As was mentioned above, the industry is cyclical and very subject to economic swings as well as "black swan" events which punish airlines more than other sectors (9/11, pandemics, foreign war, etc).
If this ends up being a typical recession, you'll still be in good shape by the time you finish school and get to 1500 hours (or 1000 or whatever).
But there is also the risk of catastrophic, unprecedented events which result in permanent structural changes to the economy, industry, and/or society (asteroid impact, civil war, eco-politics, etc). Some sectors are more at risk for that kind of thing, and airlines are usually right up there at the top of the list. So there's always that risk, but it applies to most sectors to some degree except mandatory services like medicine, food production/delivery, law enforcement.
If you pursue aviation, you have to plan on rolling with the cyclical punches, and be at least slightly mentally prepared for a big game-changer out of left field, although it's pretty unlikely.
The industry has bounced back from numerous insults over the decades, including several epidemics.