Ok real quick- the nice thing about this article is it’s pretty transparent about how it calculates its forecast, and is open about the assumptions. So anyone can look at, duplicate it, or modify it based on assumptions they think are more realistic in there own spreadsheet.

Hybrid Model (COVID-19) | Audries Aircraft Analysis

This model assumes a 50% initial cut (which is the most extreme among airlines using United’s announcements) so in that sense it’s actually pretty conservative. SouthWest just announced somewhere around 20%+ which is quite a bit less than the models 50% across the board.

Since the model uses percentage change in RPK, it’s not perfectly accurate but does capture the relative change in needed lift and workforce to compensate for lost traffic. From that approach we don’t need to calculate pilots/aircraft.