Originally Posted by
PilotAnalyst
Ok real quick- the nice thing about this article is it’s pretty transparent about how it calculates its forecast, and is open about the assumptions. So anyone can look at, duplicate it, or modify it based on assumptions they think are more realistic in there own spreadsheet.
Hybrid Model (COVID-19) | Audries Aircraft Analysis
This model assumes a 50% initial cut (which is the most extreme among airlines using United’s announcements) so in that sense it’s actually pretty conservative. SouthWest just announced somewhere around 20%+ which is quite a bit less than the models 50% across the board.
Since the model uses percentage change in RPK, it’s not perfectly accurate but does capture the relative change in needed lift and workforce to compensate for lost traffic. From that approach we don’t need to calculate pilots/aircraft.
Imho... i believe the assumptions are conservative...
China aerospace sector has been decimated.
https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-china-southern/update-1-chinas-biggest-airlines-reduce-70-of-capacity-in-feb-as-coronavirus-bites-idINL4N2BB3OM
I believe it would be smart of all of us to plan on 75 percent reductions till year end... and than, recovery will be a long process with a crippled global economy. Sprinkle in geopolitical tensions caused by a worldwide depression and government financial intervention is only going to do so much.
Im hoping it's not that bad... it's easy to start looking at the hyperbole news believing the sky is falling, but let's be honest, pragmatically, travel will be impacted for years to come and no one can predict the bottom right now.
Please expect my humble opinion as only my sole opinion, I'm no genius or expert, but I don't trust the experts.