Originally Posted by
OVC010CB
It's really interesting to view this as an economic problem and analyze it with economic data, but in my view this issue is a psychological problem which is difficult to predict.
The irrational hysteria has made this virus out to be, by many, many factors, more dangerous than it actually is.
Until people start behaving rationally and assessing risk properly they will continue to destroy the economy very quickly. They will cause much more harm than this virus ever could have.
Where is the bottom? I wouldn't ask an economist. Perhaps there are some social psychologists that study this stuff.
Older people should be scared, don't blame them.
But the young are already chaffing at the bit, including my wife who's stir crazy after a couple days working from home. I don't think people will permanently alter their behavior because of the virus; they might if the economy gets scary enough though.
That's really the big question, is this a two-quarter event with a V-correction, or a two-year recession event? Or a depression with a an even longer timeline and structural changes to the economy?
Hopefully not the last.