Originally Posted by
Cicada
My opinion only: I see every single airline entering BK. And this time it's going to be restructuring simply to provide necessary commerce to prop up the rest of the economy. All the stock wiped clean, and not going to be a consideration to be re issued for a long time while the airlines simply take government aid money, create cash flow to operate, and pay employees and vendors. Move the rest of the world towards recovery simply as a utility. It's that dire. Nobody is going to view an airline as an investment for a period of at least five years. It's going to be simply prop them up, let them collect cash to operate, pay employees and vendors. That's it. The government will be first to siphon back any reserve cash later, not stockholders. Maybe yrs later stock comes back, with serious constraints.
Maybe ten years down, or five. Definitely no stock concerns for now.
I wouldn t look for a stock recovery any more. I did for a while, no more. Sold it all.
This too will pass in some way, there is still quite a bit of capital in the US. We are not a communist or socialist country so the govt will not "own" the airlines. If they go through BK system, it will reset everyones wages and terms of current contracts based on what the current demand is. It will not be good for us the employees or the vendors.
There may be lender of last resort loans by the govt, but eventually private money will flow back into the companies via stock/bonds. Depending upon the damage, some companies may not be viable going forward. It's really an unknown at this point is when this situation changes.