Originally Posted by
Itsajob
I’m afraid that you’re right. I also think that there will be a fairly rapid (by the end of the year) recovery, but only to a level of around 60-70% what it was. The full recovery to where we were could take a couple of years. The damage to the global economy has been done and the market will take time to correct. This is far from over, and the economic damage will worsen. We haven’t even hit peak freak out in this country yet.
That sounds likely; a rapid return to 60-70% but a much longer slog before demand returns to 2019 levels. That's a lot of excess capacity for the next couple of years. A lot of firm orders are going to get turned into options. And there are more than a few European and Asian carriers that are likely to close their doors, causing a further glut of used aircraft.
On a positive note, oil prices should be low for quite a while.