Originally Posted by
MagooFlew
just trying to follow your analysis...I think you meant the marginal additional (sidelined on SRL) pilots cost 50/73hrs = 69% ; ) of what they used to. But the more relevant factor would be the marginal cost of the 50-100 seat lift (at rough avg 34% of the cost in pilot crew pay alone)
XJet 175 FO / UAL 737 FO $/hr
4 yr 46/ 161
3 yr 158 / 44
157 / 42
91 / 40
avg 43 / 137
XJet 175 CA / UAL 737 CA
4 yr 87 / 276
85 / 273
83 / 270
81 / 268
avg 84 / 272
127 / 369
34%
You could pay two RJ crews to fly the same hours and still pay 254/369 =only 69% of the mainline pilot rate for one crew, plus the lower overall operating costs and $/seat-mile efficiency (if you can convince travelers to fly on a full non socially-distanced RJ). I don’t have all those costs or the revenue share for UAL to figure it all out, but likely the only reason they don’t swap RJ for mainline lift right now is to some extent the aircraft range, but mostly the contract and union engagement. But if they do, wouldn’t the RJ profitability at these load factors help the SRL’d mainline guys keep their jobs?
I haven't bothered playing with the numbers but I'm sure SK will, including factoring in the cost to retrain UAL pilots. In addition, it's a matter of how easy it will be for United to contractually reduce outsourcing. This is all speculation on my part; good for you for doing an initial numbers crunch.
Cost per seat mile may not matter as much as cost to operate each flight. I wouldn't expect any flight - either RJ or mainline - to be profitable for some time; I'm not sure why you or anyone would think that RJ flights are anywhere close to breakeven for mainline carriers. I also expect flight frequency of all city pairs to be reduced - that's both mainline and RJ cities.
No airline is going to be spared from this carnage.