Originally Posted by LimaBravoDelta

I’m an equity trader as well as a pilot. My take on this situation...

First.... the DJIA could easily see a 50% drop. Several quarters of negative GDP... probably 3-4 quarters. Unprecedented unemployment in all sectors for 1-2 years. Businesses in bankruptcy, small businesses being hit particularly hard. Possible that 50-75% of small businesses won’t make it through this. Families dealing with death of relatives. The resolve of people all over the world will be seriously tested. People not being able to pay their mortgages and car loans. Cars will be repossessed and houses forclosed on. Businesses will cut out business travel and the general public will stop flying. I saw this after 9/11. Planes flying almost empty. 15-20 pax on a 767 was the norm for several months.

The actual virus is here to stay forever. A vaccine will have to be developed before daily life and markets start to recover. The feds will be printing so much cash inflation will be an issue. Time frame for just the vaccine is a minimum of a year away. Total recovery till we are back to where we were pre collapse will be 3-5 years. Yes.... furloughs for the most junior pilots will be 3-5 years. New hiring beyond 3-5 years. Pilots in early training borrowing money should just walk away if the cost of training and loan repayment will be a hardship which it obviously will be.

In my opinion the airlines don’t deserve a bailout. They’ve been buying back their stock pushing stock prices artificially higher for years. Profits in the airline industry have been unprecedented in the last decade. They should be given low interest loans. If you don’t save cash for a rainy day then you get what you deserve. Pilot contracts will be renegotiated and salaries will likely be cut in half.

Sorry for the grim outlook but I believe it’s realistic.