Thread: Who’s Next?
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Old 03-25-2020 | 08:19 PM
  #78  
Duffman
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Originally Posted by nate5ks
A depression is not another recession. The last one ended in a world war killing 75 million people. It's naive to think that the consequences of a severe depression couldn't compare with or exceed that of a pandemic.
Also, there's nothing saying a depression always causes a war, especially considering our near-peer frenemy is already beginning to pull through this after successful containment. It's China, they had 1-child policy, and even they didn't just try to power through this. They need double digit growth in GDP just be "sustainable" and even they recognized that they need to lock everything down and contain the spread. Now we're actually mulling over undermining whatever quarantine efforts just so the Dow will have a slightly better quarter in an election year?

This video will literally answer any questions you have about why this virus is so dangerous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPgo-o
TLDR, COVID19 has a Ro of 2-3, meaning each person infects 2-3 others. The basic math is "number of infected people" = (series interval)^(Ro). Series interval is basically how long it takes someone to become contagious and infect someone else, which is really fast with COVID19 (like 2 days). To put it in perspective, the flu has a Ro of 1.3, so assuming the series interval for the flu is 2 days after 10 days a flu outbreak that started with 1 person is now 8-9 people. After 10 days with COVID its (5)^2 or (5)^3 which is 25 to 125 people. This is absolutely more dangerous than doing a proper quarantine and accepting the financial fallout, that realistically, is the result of an act of God, not a broken system, like the Stock Market crash that caused the Great Depression.
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