Originally Posted by
Duffman
Also, there's nothing saying a depression always causes a war, especially considering our near-peer frenemy is already beginning to pull through this after successful containment. It's China, they had 1-child policy, and even they didn't just try to power through this. They need double digit growth in GDP just be "sustainable" and even they recognized that they need to lock everything down and contain the spread. Now we're actually mulling over undermining whatever quarantine efforts just so the Dow will have a slightly better quarter in an election year?
This video will literally answer any questions you have about why this virus is so dangerous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPgo-o
TLDR, COVID19 has a Ro of 2-3, meaning each person infects 2-3 others. The basic math is "number of infected people" = (series interval)^(Ro). Series interval is basically how long it takes someone to become contagious and infect someone else, which is really fast with COVID19 (like 2 days). To put it in perspective, the flu has a Ro of 1.3, so assuming the series interval for the flu is 2 days after 10 days a flu outbreak that started with 1 person is now 8-9 people. After 10 days with COVID its (5)^2 or (5)^3 which is 25 to 125 people. This is absolutely more dangerous than doing a proper quarantine and accepting the financial fallout, that realistically, is the result of an act of God, not a broken system, like the Stock Market crash that caused the Great Depression.
I understand the math and I have read what the Ro of COVID 19 is compared to other variants of the virus and the seasonal flu. If you want to imagine the effects of a worldwide depression, look at Venezuela and apply what is going on there to the EU and possibly even the US. If you think we can indefinitely quarantine and cease production and come out on the other side without seeing conflict and famine you need to take a look at history. Too many people watch Star Trek and imagine a world where economic consequences don't exist but they are very real. You won't see it for a few months (hopefully) but when large percentages of the population can no longer pay their rent or their mortgage or have to choose between paying the utilities and buying food you will see what I'm talking about and it won't be pretty. We need to isolate those who are most vulnerable (we have a good idea who they are) and the young and healthy need to return to work. There is a finite time this can last because it is not physically possible to cease production and still have a functioning society. Between 3/4 and 3/5 of workers in the US live paycheck to paycheck. Let's assume this stimulus actually passes and one of those workers can afford rent for another month, that gives them until the end of the third month after the start of the shutdown assuming they paid their rent for the first month right after the shutdown started. If this thing drags into a 4th month you will start to see evictions and the beginning of mortgage defaults due to tenants not paying their rent (maybe a couple months after if landlords have any capital but who knows, maybe they lost their jobs too). People are now out on the street wondering where they are going to live and where their next meal is going to come from. The charities that normally support people in this position have been depleted because their donors aren't making any money. People who had spent their entire lives and fortune building a business see it crushed. Lives are ruined, relationships are broken, and people are driven to depression and suicide. This speaks nothing of the global tensions that might arise.