Originally Posted by
korg128
Testing is increasing but in terms of the curve of this virus in the usa we're roughly 1/3 of the way in while major cities health care facilities are nearing overcapacity which is where and why deaths will occur.
There's is 0 evidence that the mortality rate is dropping period. 183 deaths in NYC yesterday a new high with spikes of cases in new Orleans and Chicago as the new epicenters. Those 40000 ventilators NYC requested alone are not because the mortality rate is going down either for example again..
Though I get trying to be positive your numbers are simply not fact. Minimizing the issue at hand is what people like Fauci are trying to educate people on as social distancing, leveraged health care capacity and access to testing will start the decline of the mortality rate.
Imo the big f may be inevitable but is simply in hindsight if this virus isn't controlled correctly. I'd say just expect the worst and hope for the best
The mortality rate may not actually be dropping, but it is revealing itself. And it is revealing itself to not be nearly as bad as what was originally feared. The population studies out of Iceland where over 3% of the population has been tested reveal that half of the infected are totally asymptomatic, and in most other countries are not even being identified at all. While that does nothing about the NUMBER who are dying, it cuts the RATE in half. With universal testing it seems likely that the true rate will end up down around 0.3-0.4%, a huge improvement from the initial 2-3% mortality rate being used in many of the epidemiological models based upon early mortality figures.
and yeah, while all those asymptomatic people running around feeling well but potentially spreading the virus has its own set of negatives, it does indeed bring the fatality rate down and hastens the day when there won’t be enough susceptibles out there to sustain the epidemic and it will start to burn itself out.