Old 03-30-2020 | 12:13 PM
  #36  
Funk
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Originally Posted by TED74
I don't believe the false negative rates for any of these tests are well understood. That will be a crucial data point in determining how testing can effect return to work/normalcy.
For the existing tests thus far, the sensitivity rate is about 70%, meaning 7 of 10 tested, but which all have the disease, will test positive. That is the prevailing estimate, which includes test failure issues such as incorrect sample collection, etc. If that 70% number is close, then actual cases would run about 42% higher than the confirmed number shows. As many might guess or presume at this point, the foggy nature of test accuracy numbers is the tip of the iceberg regarding almost all of the numbers being thrown around. It is very difficult to trace and evaluate methodology for lots of the numbers we see or hear in the news, which is terribly unsatisfying for most, especially those that feel the real and perceived press of urgency to have a date or time to see as the culmination of all the chaos.
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