Originally Posted by
Andy
That senior CA was correct. And UALALPA has a distinguished history over the last two decades of pulling up the ladder (I got mine) extremely quickly. Has that changed? We'll see but I doubt the senior guys' attitudes have changed.
I'm a juniorish NB CA. I can make it on 35hrs/mo and can probably bank some money at that pay {except I'm starting to send support to all of my siblings and my wife is doing the same, so we'll be depleting some of our savings supporting our immediate family}. But I'm not volunteering for option A to save anyone from furlough; the company is almost certainly going to furlough.
I don't like writing the following, but I'm not going to sit here and blow smoke up the butts of the bottom of the list. Things are fugly for the airlines for the foreseeable future. Furloughs are coming and they'll likely be deeper than most here think. Having been furloughed twice, I know the pain involved and do not write this lightly.
I would expect a small batch of 777/787/756 FO displacements shortly. They will be forced into 320/737/756 seats as I expect them to stop a bit above junior 737/320 CA. The last junior man list I see is from 20-04V, and the junior NB CA was 11099. So let's say UAL goes with a displacement of 77/787/756 FOs with seniority of 11100 and below.
That would keep the NB PIs at TK busy most of the summer training displacements - the most senior displacements first, as a lot of the junior displacements will likely be furloughed before they even start training. Once the beginning of Aug rolls around, I'd expect furlough notices to be sent out. And then a second round of furloughs where it digs into all BESs except WB CA.
If you're real junior on the seniority list, consider taking a four month ESRL starting in Jun to cover you through the end of Sep. Chances are, you'll be seamlessly furloughed at the beginning of Oct. But this will allow you to find other work to cover you through the furlough. And it gives you a four month headstart on others who believe that this is just a small bump in the road. UAL is probably going to be a much smaller airline on the other side of this for at least a couple of years.
For those of you on the bottom of the seniority list, do not fritter away this temporary reprieve. You can hope for the best but plan for the worst.
All the best to everyone.
For the record, I don't disagree with you at all. As a 2018 hire, I am fully prepared to be furloughed for an extended period of time. The writing is on the wall, there is no doubt about that, and I plan to take a voluntary out of some kind sooner rather than later. However, with that being said, I'm pretty sure just about NO ONE in aviation in the US is hiring or will be hiring in the near future. Outside of having the financial house in order, I think the options within the industry are going to be pretty limited for quite some time.