I don't know the answer to that but I can assure you somebody will answer this question soon. To piggyback slightly on your question concerning pilots who unfortunately are off flying status for whatever reason, in his latest video posted on SkyHub under "Flight Operations News" posted on March 25th, BS was talking about the May schedule and how on the day in which he shot said video we were 7,000 pilots overstaffed for the May schedule. In the video he said that "we're projecting the need for about 6,200 pilots to operate the May schedule, we have about 13,200 pilots so we have about 7,000 pilots above what we need." (See the 1:30-2:00 mark of the video for the exact quote). The important number here is "13,200 pilots" and I gather that he is referring to pilots on active status. As of the March 2020 seniority list we had 14,674 pilots so I'm making the assumption that around 1,474 pilots (give or take 100) are on inactive status. When furloughs occur does management look at the total number of pilots on the seniority list or the number of active pilots to determine a number upon which to base staffing reductions?

Assuming they furlough off the number of active pilots, in this case 13,200, we know from the ALPA dashboard that 436 are slated to retire in 2020 and 698 are slated to retire in 2021. A "rumor" going around the industry (not Delta specific) is that in order to furlough, the rule of thumb is that said furloughees need to be off property for anywhere between 9-20 months for it "to make financial sense" for the furlough to occur in the first place due to the training wave produced by the furlough. Due to age 65, between now and 12/31/2021 1,134 pilots will retire, period.

If early outs are offered in the same fashion that AA has offered (62 and above are eligible) that means that pilots retiring between now and April 2023 are eligible. Per ALPA's dashboard of retirements:

2020-436
2021-698
2022-781
2023-190 (759 are slated to retire in 2023, 190 between 1/1/2023-3/31/2023 if you divide 759/4)
Total: 2,105

So 2,105 pilots would be eligible to take an early out option (if offered)...assuming only 20% of those pilots take advantage that reduces the seniority list by another 421, albeit they're still being paid 50-55 hours until age 65 but it does count toward something as the majority of these early outs will be taken by WB Captains. I believe roughly 600 pilots at American took the deal.

So between actual retirements and early out options, by 12/31/2021 our seniority list could be reduced by 1,555 without having to furlough a single pilot which represents 11.7% of active pilots and 10.5% of the entire seniority list as of March 2020. I'm hoping and praying that NOBODY will have to be furloughed but for those of you running numbers that is what I came up with based on available information.

It is my personal opinion that if demand data is suggesting a modest return in Q4 and is trending consistently up into Q1 and Q2 of 2021 a furlough might not be necessary and if there is one it is for 12 months or less.