I can think of another explanation. Coronavirus is going to exacerbate the demographic pilot shortage. Yeah, currently with little flying, there is no shortage, but even the big ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic a century ago only lasted two years, and most pandemics are shorter than that one.

But look at one of the steps some Airlines have already taken to avoid furloughs because a seniority based furlough in multi aircraft fleets is so enormously costly in training. Early retirement is going to take off the rolls a number of pilots that would have otherwise stuck around for at least a few more years. And, sadly, the coronavirus itself will take out some of us - disproportionately the older ones. But that’s still additional attrition than would have otherwise been the case.

Then there is the supply side. Right now, flight time is a relatively scarce commodity at all levels compared to a year ago. People aren’t getting trained at the entry level like they once were, limiting the hours that allow their progression, as well as the progression of the CFIs that train them. Regional flying time has collapsed as well. Those pilots who were coming up the ladder to replace the mandatory retirements have their own progression put on hold by this.

So when this is actually over - be it three months, six months, or a couple of years from now - the pilot shortage will be worse than ever. It actually makes sense, if they have the money to do it, to get as many qualified people as possible aboard, with a seniority number, and a commitment to NK while they are still available. F9 ought to be doing it too, locking in good candidates while they can get them cheap and taking advantage of the absurdly low first year pay. Because good candidates will be in far shorter supply once this pandemic goes away, and as hard as it seems to believe that now, this won’t last forever.