Originally Posted by
Excargodog
So when this is actually over - be it three months, six months, or a couple of years from now - the pilot shortage will be worse than ever. It actually makes sense, if they have the money to do it, to get as many qualified people as possible aboard, with a seniority number, and a commitment to NK while they are still available. F9 ought to be doing it too, locking in good candidates while they can get them cheap and taking advantage of the absurdly low first year pay. Because good candidates will be in far shorter supply once this pandemic goes away, and as hard as it seems to believe that now, this won’t last forever.
Why would they be in shorter supply. Hypothetical, APC forum discussion timeline:
Summer 2020: gone, destroyed by COVID
October 2020: Assume 100 (one hundred) furloughed by each of Big-3, JetBlue, SWA, and at Skywest, Endeavor, Envoy. As a result of furloughs, there is no "new pilot hiring" going on at above companies. 8 companies X 100 = 800 dudes with Boeing, Airbus, ERJ time and 121 time. This assumes
one hundred at each company.
October 2020 thru 2021: Big-3, JetBlue, SWA management reshapes their fleet structure and business model, they come out the other side as smaller companies. Now, no "need" for new pilot hiring. They still have furloughees on the street even if they "needed" pilots.
April 2021: One year since COVID-19, vaccine is obtained/developed. Injecting this into everyone's arm in USA takes 6 months.
Summer 2021: ??? to be determined.
October 2021: Everyone's arm got the COVID vaccine. People finally decide it is safe to travel. People return to the
smaller sized major airlines.
during the above years, retirements are occuring at the companies. Furloughee's are junior folks and likely age 55 or younger, generally speaking. In other words, few furloughees hit age 65 while on the street.
April 2022: six months later, Big-3 and other majors begin to recall furloughees
October 2022: Big-3 and majors resume new-pilot hiring
Shorter supply ? from late 2020 to late 2022, no. after that, yes. Will Spirit HR hire a furloughed Delta guy, who triple promises he is not returning to Delta ? Time will tell.
*I may have just made your point. Indeed, possible. I think some valid arguments that yes possible, others that no, no way