Originally Posted by
TrojanCMH
One thing that worries me with Spirit is if the big three and southwest cut costs so much they can compete with us on price once the average family wants to start flying again. Spirit has no loyal passengers. If price was equal no one would fly us or any of the LCCs.
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Barring bankruptcy, the more the Big Three downsize the higher their unit costs. That would be the case even if they were a single fleet type, since by furloughing they will disproportionately retain the more senior (ie, more highly paid) pilots. But they AREN’T single fleet types, meaning every furlough - AND EVERY REHIRE - is going to generate a number of training events, as guys whose last previous type was in a 727 need to be 737 and/or MAX trained since his/her 787 is now parked. And even if all the flying came back in line proportionately by type, that would just mean more retraining.
No, unless the Big Three get some sweetheart deal from the feds or actually go through bankruptcy to extract huge concessions from their unions, I can’t see them bouncing back quicker than the LCC/ULCC model.
I’ll concede I may be wrong - wouldn’t be the first time - but I think the single fleet model (+/- the MAX for SWA) confers a substantial advantage - at least for domestic flying, which I believe will rebound first.