Originally Posted by
Probe
I was surprised when he bought the stock, frankly. He bought most of it late in an economic cycle, in an industry where the magnitude of the cycle is 3-5 times the underlying economy. He also bought DAL, which like AAL and UAL, spent the vast majority of their free cash flow on stock buybacks, which he publicly derides companies for doing.
Dumbest thing I have ever seen him do. Maybe the only dumb thing.
If this shutdown lasts much longer, it will take 18-24 months for air travel to recover. Air travel never bounces right back. 1/3 of the population won't have money to travel, and another 20% (retirees) won't want to get on an airplane until they get vaccinated.
Article from Forbes saying consensus is pax traffic not back to 2019 levels until 2023:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyb.../#6daf1fe8fa37
Adam Pilarski, a consultant with Avitas who has warned for years that airlines were ordering too many planes during the boom times of the last decade, expects that airline traffic won’t return to 2019 levels until 2023, a forecast in line with many other observers.