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Old 04-06-2020, 09:45 AM
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dremaldent
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 178
Default 50 Seat Viability

Just want to create this thread to talk about a few things we know so far. Kirby did imply that 50-seaters may be going away, but we shouldn't be super worried about that right now. Here's my take on everything going on right now.

1. We have no idea what he actually meant when he said that, nor the timeframe. He could be implying that he wants scope relief from UALPA, which he likely won't get, which makes this entire fear of him taking our planes away kind of moot.

2. Switching exclusively to a 70 seat market won't work without scope relief. There are simply too many routes to cover.

3. AWAC has passed an LOA that makes us (Hopefully) furlough proof until the end of May, on the basis of reducing our guarantee of course.. They have also passed an LOU which pay protects us in case we get COVID-19. That doesn't sound like a dying company to me. If they take money from the Federal government, this is extended to the end of September.

4. Even if Kirby gets his scope relief, there will still be a (Slightly smaller) regional market that needs to be covered. Sure it will be taken up by larger companies, but having CRJs rather than ERJs will give us a small edge in retraining since I'm expecting United will prefer CRJs over ERJs. It's very likely AWAC will still retain a contract.

5. The economy will bounce back after this. UND has posted a video made by economists in their university about how they expect airlines to fully recover by the end of the year. Hiring will slow down until summer next year, but will not stop. UND is 96% accurate when it comes to industry prediction.

6. Contrary to the fear I've been seeing from many, this will not end the airline industry (Yes, I've actually seen people say that no one will want to do air travel ever again after this). People will forget about this rather quickly, and return to their old habits as soon as the risk of contracting COVID-19 is reduced.
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