Originally Posted by gloopy

There's going to be displacements no matter what we do. Likewise for furloughs to some degree and duration. What lowering ALV will do is reduce how far the negatives go. While you don't want a "double whammy" of an hours cut along with a displacement, lower ALV's will reduce how far you slide down the ladder. For some that will not prevent a displacement but for others it will. For those who still get displaced, it will at least reduce the seniority slide.

Full ALV til the last day is a very poor and hyper fatalistic strategy that only makes sense in two scenarios; imminent liquidation or rapid V shaped recovery. For everything in the middle, which is far more likely, lower ALV/GAR (especially in conjunction with early outs and even lower SIL's) won't eliminate, but will significantly mitigate, whatever downside there will be. The traditional mass furlough to the bone model will also slow our recovery on the upside of this, meaning whatever furloughs and displacements we see will last longer than they would have with a reduced ALV.