Originally Posted by
Brown
Inflate my sense of self worth?
How is early 2010 so hard for you to believe? It's already early 2008 right now. If they are only hiring 150 this year, he will still be 150 in the pool by this time next year.
If he's #150 in the pool in early 2009, he still will likely have another year to go - unless SWA plans on training many more from the pool in 2009.
So, why is two and a half years in the pool so unrealistic? I've heard it's been that long in the past?
Also, in my opinion only, SWA isn't the airline that it used to be. They won't see the tremendous domestic growth like they have in the past.
I am in the 13 Feb class. There are 13 poolies in the class and there were 4 deferrals. So the pool went through 17 spots (assuming those 4 turn down the next class as well, which would remove them from the pool).
I know it isn't enough data to make a really good guess, but that deferral rate of 23%, if it stood for the rest of the pool, would mean there is really going to be around 270 poolies remaining instead of the 350 names that are on the list. And as the wait time for classes grows from what is now (9 months) the percentage of deferrals should grow.
I'm not a math guy and I have zero airline experience, so you can rip me on my conclusions if you'd like, but that is how I see it from a "caveman pilot" point of view.