Originally Posted by
Itsajob
Who consolidates with who? According to a quick Google search, there about 340 aircraft(+some 550’s) in the 50 seat fleet. SkyWest has about 1/3 of them, while Air Wisconsin, CommutAir, and Expressjet all exclusively fly 50 seaters and collectively operate the rest. There are also about 250 aircraft that are 70+ seats, many of which are owned by a regional airline, and not United. If the 50 seat fleet is on the chopping block, why have consolidation among the exclusive operators? Why would others absorb equipment and people who are slated to be cut? United has invested money in companies like Expressjet, but if their fleet is not long for this world, would it be cheaper to write that investment off or to transfer United owned big rj’s to a company that they made a prior investment in? Kirby has repeatedly said that the 50 seat flying will be almost gone, a thing of the past, or have a significant reduction. If the company decides to practically eliminate a fleet type that makes up over half of the total hulls, how do you consolidate companies when half of the crews will no longer be needed? Outside of bankruptcy, they aren’t going to get scope relief, until things return to normal I don’t see United even entertaining the idea of purchasing a new 100 seat fleet type, and if they are still not interested in 100 seaters, they definitely won’t want mainline 76 seaters. I’m looking at this as an outsider or from a management perspective, not as a pilot with skin in the game. How does it work?
My guess is that they won't completely eliminate all 50 seat flying, but there will be a significant reduction. Probably 50% or more of the 50 seat fleet gets retired. Suppose it's 2/3 that gets eliminated. That would fall in line with keeping the 145XRs and maybe the 550s that have already been converted. I think that would be about 95 aircraft on the 145 side of the equation. The "consolidation" wouldn't have to include the crews, unfortunately. Just the portion of the routes that United continued to fly that were previously farmed out to multiple carriers would be consolidated. UAL already did that with Trans States aircraft and the routes they had been flying. Some of the Trans States pilots did come over, but it was at the bottom of another regional's seniority list. Which regional would remain UAL's 50 seat operator might be the big question. Would they favor one that they already hive a financial stake in or would they possibly keep two around for some competition (whipsaw)?